Market cap rank #1
Bitcoin (BTC) rainbow valuation bands using 5,940 daily observations.
Rank
Daily observations through (UTC). This is a daily snapshot, not a live quote.
Sources recorded in this archive: CryptoCompare /histoday allData daily USD; CoinGecko /coins/{id}/market_chart daily USD. Historical providers may use different sampling conventions; combining them can introduce small discontinuities.
Download Bitcoin daily price data (JSON) · Calculation method · Source details
A long Bitcoin history spans very different price scales. This fit gives each daily log-price observation equal weight; early observations and the chosen start date can substantially change the trend. Compare the dated examples below before interpreting a band label.
USD thresholds at the default band width of 0.55. Lower bounds are inclusive and upper bounds are exclusive. Changing the interactive width changes the chart; this table keeps the default settings for reproducibility.
| Band | Lower bound (USD) | Upper bound (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Fire Sale | No lower limit | $13,030.61 |
| Accumulate | $13,030.61 | $23,351.73 |
| Still Cheap | $23,351.73 | $41,847.86 |
| Fair Value | $41,847.86 | $74,994.16 |
| Warm (recorded band) | $74,994.16 | $134,394.54 |
| FOMO | $134,394.54 | $240,844.01 |
| Overheated | $240,844.01 | $431,608.58 |
| Bubble | $431,608.58 | No upper limit |
Year-end observations evaluated using the model fitted through 2026-10-20. This uses later data to fit earlier bands: it is a retrospective illustration, not a backtest or a record of predictions made on those dates.
| UTC date | Observed price | Fitted price | Retrospective band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | $16,531.31 | $22,675.69 | Still Cheap |
| 2023-12-31 | $42,280.14 | $29,466.38 | Warm |
| 2024-12-31 | $93,391.98 | $37,602.83 | FOMO |
| 2025-12-31 | $87,519.13 | $47,179.77 | Warm |
The full-history fit uses 5,940 observations: a = -18.571571, b = 3.395497, residual sigma = 1.060672. With t as days since the first observation plus one, the fitted price is exp(a + b × ln(t)). A band boundary is fitted price × exp(k × sigma × 0.55). Boundary multipliers are -3.5, -2.5, -1.5, -0.5, 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5; the outer labels also cover values beyond the plotted envelope.
This site's bands are computed from its own power-law regression and residual spread. They should not be assumed to match another publisher's rainbow chart. The coefficients are rounded here; use the archived inputs and browser calculation code to reproduce the full-precision calculation.
See the historical forecast-error comparison with a simple baseline.
As of the latest update on 2026-10-20, Bitcoin was in the Warm band at about $81,875.26. This zone compares BTC's recorded daily price with a long-term logarithmic trend and volatility-adjusted rainbow bands.
This chart uses 5,940 daily observations from 2010-07-17 through 2026-10-20. Over that span, the fitted long-term trend is classified as upward, which helps frame whether recent prices are above or below the historical model path.
The lower bands generally represent historically depressed prices, while the middle bands represent more neutral valuation zones. The upper bands represent periods where market sentiment has become more speculative relative to the fitted trend.
No. The Bitcoin rainbow chart is a visual valuation framework, not a guaranteed forecast. It should be read as historical context for BTC, not as financial advice or a trading signal.
Rainbow bands depend on historical data, the model fit, and the selected band width. New market regimes, liquidity changes, token supply changes, or short trading histories can make any valuation model less reliable.
<p class="dek">The Bitcoin rainbow chart compares BTC's price history with long-term logarithmic valuation bands. It is designed to show broad valuation zones, not exact buy or sell points.
It can be useful for historical context, but it is not a precise forecasting tool. The bands are based on past price behavior and can change as new market data is added.
Using chart data through 2026-10-20, Bitcoin was in the Warm band at about $81,875.26.
No. The chart can visualize whether price is historically low, neutral, or stretched, but it cannot predict future cycles or guarantee market direction.
The chart is refreshed when market data is updated. This page currently uses data through 2026-10-20.
Compare this model with other crypto rainbow charts.
The levels describe how far the current price sits above or below the fitted long-term trend in volatility-adjusted log space. Lower bands indicate prices sitting well below trend, while higher bands indicate prices stretched above trend.
These labels are descriptive model zones, not buy or sell signals. The rainbow width control changes how wide the zones are, so the same asset can move between levels as the width is adjusted.
Each coin uses daily USD prices from its first available
observation. The chart maps time and price through natural logs,
then fits a power-law trend:
ln(price) = a + b * ln(days_since_inception). In
regular price space that becomes price = e^a * days^b.
The rainbow bands are parallel curves around that fitted trend.
After fitting, cryptorainbowcharts.com computes each day's log
residual
ln(actual_price) - ln(model_price), measures its
standard deviation sigma, and draws bands at
model_price * e^(k * sigma * band_width) for several
k values below and above the trend.
A coin is highlighted as positive since inception when the fitted
exponent b is above zero and the fitted value at the
latest chart day is above the fitted value near inception. That is a
trend classification, not investment advice.
Bitcoin (BTC) uses daily USD prices from 2010-07-17 through 2026-10-20. The model fits a power-law trend in log time and log price, then draws rainbow zones around that trend using volatility-adjusted residual bands.
Exploratory model output only. Not financial advice.
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A concise weekly digest of current rainbow zones, notable ranking changes, and new chart updates. Historical context only, never financial advice.