{
  "method_version": 1,
  "horizon_days": 90,
  "minimum_training_observations": 1095,
  "origin_schedule": "January 1 annually",
  "baseline": "Unchanged origin price",
  "evaluations": [
    {
      "id": "bitcoin",
      "name": "Bitcoin",
      "data_through": "2026-10-20",
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "origin_date": "2014-01-01",
          "target_date": "2014-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1265,
          "actual_price": 463.45,
          "model_price": 67.12108421465224,
          "baseline_price": 815.94,
          "model_error_pct": 85.51708183953993,
          "baseline_error_pct": 76.05782716582156
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2015-01-01",
          "target_date": "2015-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1630,
          "actual_price": 246.24,
          "model_price": 245.81751428111073,
          "baseline_price": 314.89,
          "model_error_pct": 0.1715747721285238,
          "baseline_error_pct": 27.879304743339823
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2016-01-01",
          "target_date": "2016-03-31",
          "training_rows": 1995,
          "actual_price": 415.66,
          "model_price": 387.26128405451544,
          "baseline_price": 433.99,
          "model_error_pct": 6.832198418294899,
          "baseline_error_pct": 4.409854207765958
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2017-01-01",
          "target_date": "2017-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2361,
          "actual_price": 1086.12,
          "model_price": 619.9828550697438,
          "baseline_price": 995.44,
          "model_error_pct": 42.91764675452585,
          "baseline_error_pct": 8.348985379147777
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2018-01-01",
          "target_date": "2018-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2726,
          "actual_price": 6835.84,
          "model_price": 1267.8126809456194,
          "baseline_price": 13444.88,
          "model_error_pct": 81.45344711190404,
          "baseline_error_pct": 96.68219267858814
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2019-01-01",
          "target_date": "2019-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3091,
          "actual_price": 4151.32,
          "model_price": 2566.9251186765637,
          "baseline_price": 3880.15,
          "model_error_pct": 38.16605034840572,
          "baseline_error_pct": 6.532139175009386
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2020-01-01",
          "target_date": "2020-03-31",
          "training_rows": 3456,
          "actual_price": 6423.61,
          "model_price": 4220.846262393685,
          "baseline_price": 7189.94,
          "model_error_pct": 34.29167925210769,
          "baseline_error_pct": 11.929896117603652
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2021-01-01",
          "target_date": "2021-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3822,
          "actual_price": 58730.82,
          "model_price": 6598.77160078865,
          "baseline_price": 29388.94,
          "model_error_pct": 88.76438026782421,
          "baseline_error_pct": 49.95993585650601
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2022-01-01",
          "target_date": "2022-04-01",
          "training_rows": 4187,
          "actual_price": 46299.75,
          "model_price": 11942.001172218532,
          "baseline_price": 47737.35,
          "model_error_pct": 74.20720161076781,
          "baseline_error_pct": 3.1049843681661318
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2023-01-01",
          "target_date": "2023-04-01",
          "training_rows": 4552,
          "actual_price": 28468.49,
          "model_price": 17347.685808347385,
          "baseline_price": 16613.87,
          "model_error_pct": 39.063554799192424,
          "baseline_error_pct": 41.641196986563045
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2024-01-01",
          "target_date": "2024-03-31",
          "training_rows": 4917,
          "actual_price": 71312.91,
          "model_price": 23577.301154181543,
          "baseline_price": 44197.61,
          "model_error_pct": 66.93824280318734,
          "baseline_error_pct": 38.02298910533871
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2025-01-01",
          "target_date": "2025-04-01",
          "training_rows": 5283,
          "actual_price": 85174.96,
          "model_price": 33785.7277876385,
          "baseline_price": 94392.51,
          "model_error_pct": 60.33373213484515,
          "baseline_error_pct": 10.8219011784684
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2026-01-01",
          "target_date": "2026-04-01",
          "training_rows": 5648,
          "actual_price": 68108.11,
          "model_price": 47993.10667354554,
          "baseline_price": 88742.68,
          "model_error_pct": 29.533932635121516,
          "baseline_error_pct": 30.29678844413682
        }
      ],
      "summary": {
        "count": 13,
        "first_origin": "2014-01-01",
        "last_origin": "2026-01-01",
        "median_model_error_pct": 42.91764675452585,
        "median_baseline_error_pct": 27.879304743339823,
        "model_wins": 4
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ethereum",
      "name": "Ethereum",
      "data_through": "2026-10-20",
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "origin_date": "2019-01-01",
          "target_date": "2019-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1244,
          "actual_price": 141.52,
          "model_price": 340.3553297832245,
          "baseline_price": 141.9,
          "model_error_pct": 140.4998090610687,
          "baseline_error_pct": 0.2685132843414326
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2020-01-01",
          "target_date": "2020-03-31",
          "training_rows": 1609,
          "actual_price": 133.1,
          "model_price": 382.45970951453944,
          "baseline_price": 130.57,
          "model_error_pct": 187.34764050679146,
          "baseline_error_pct": 1.9008264462809925
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2021-01-01",
          "target_date": "2021-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1975,
          "actual_price": 1967.67,
          "model_price": 466.82460818343975,
          "baseline_price": 730.6,
          "model_error_pct": 76.27525915506972,
          "baseline_error_pct": 62.86979015790251
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2022-01-01",
          "target_date": "2022-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2340,
          "actual_price": 3455.72,
          "model_price": 1019.3481902527853,
          "baseline_price": 3766.74,
          "model_error_pct": 70.50258150970608,
          "baseline_error_pct": 9.000150475154237
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2023-01-01",
          "target_date": "2023-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2705,
          "actual_price": 1821.79,
          "model_price": 1531.3435487343475,
          "baseline_price": 1200.1,
          "model_error_pct": 15.942916102605267,
          "baseline_error_pct": 34.12522848407336
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2024-01-01",
          "target_date": "2024-03-31",
          "training_rows": 3070,
          "actual_price": 3645.98,
          "model_price": 1999.1878432285434,
          "baseline_price": 2352.65,
          "model_error_pct": 45.16733928248253,
          "baseline_error_pct": 35.472767266962514
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2025-01-01",
          "target_date": "2025-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3436,
          "actual_price": 1905.23,
          "model_price": 2682.473558782468,
          "baseline_price": 3353.28,
          "model_error_pct": 40.79526140059037,
          "baseline_error_pct": 76.00394703001739
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2026-01-01",
          "target_date": "2026-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3801,
          "actual_price": 2140.1,
          "model_price": 3306.965543624923,
          "baseline_price": 3000.79,
          "model_error_pct": 54.523879427359624,
          "baseline_error_pct": 40.21727956637541
        }
      ],
      "summary": {
        "count": 8,
        "first_origin": "2019-01-01",
        "last_origin": "2026-01-01",
        "median_model_error_pct": 62.51323046853285,
        "median_baseline_error_pct": 34.79899787551794,
        "model_wins": 2
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "solana",
      "name": "Solana",
      "data_through": "2026-10-20",
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "origin_date": "2024-01-01",
          "target_date": "2024-03-31",
          "training_rows": 1362,
          "actual_price": 202.43,
          "model_price": 65.52665854958055,
          "baseline_price": 110.02,
          "model_error_pct": 67.62996663064736,
          "baseline_error_pct": 45.65034826853728
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2025-01-01",
          "target_date": "2025-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1728,
          "actual_price": 126.69,
          "model_price": 116.47255333610268,
          "baseline_price": 193.85,
          "model_error_pct": 8.064919617884064,
          "baseline_error_pct": 53.01128739442734
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2026-01-01",
          "target_date": "2026-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2093,
          "actual_price": 81.17,
          "model_price": 162.93345885460695,
          "baseline_price": 126.74,
          "model_error_pct": 100.73113078059252,
          "baseline_error_pct": 56.14143156338548
        }
      ],
      "summary": {
        "count": 3,
        "first_origin": "2024-01-01",
        "last_origin": "2026-01-01",
        "median_model_error_pct": 67.62996663064736,
        "median_baseline_error_pct": 53.01128739442734,
        "model_wins": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ripple",
      "name": "XRP",
      "data_through": "2026-10-20",
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "origin_date": "2019-01-01",
          "target_date": "2019-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1434,
          "actual_price": 0.3134,
          "model_price": 0.1560780460244248,
          "baseline_price": 0.3709,
          "model_error_pct": 50.19845372545476,
          "baseline_error_pct": 18.347160178685385
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2020-01-01",
          "target_date": "2020-03-31",
          "training_rows": 1799,
          "actual_price": 0.1738,
          "model_price": 0.258052297452326,
          "baseline_price": 0.1931,
          "model_error_pct": 48.47658081261564,
          "baseline_error_pct": 11.104718066743374
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2021-01-01",
          "target_date": "2021-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2165,
          "actual_price": 0.5705,
          "model_price": 0.31652441528225683,
          "baseline_price": 0.2379,
          "model_error_pct": 44.51806918803561,
          "baseline_error_pct": 58.299737072743206
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2022-01-01",
          "target_date": "2022-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2530,
          "actual_price": 0.8279,
          "model_price": 0.495982853173051,
          "baseline_price": 0.8501,
          "model_error_pct": 40.09145389865309,
          "baseline_error_pct": 2.68148327092644
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2023-01-01",
          "target_date": "2023-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2895,
          "actual_price": 0.5097,
          "model_price": 0.588518791621361,
          "baseline_price": 0.3387,
          "model_error_pct": 15.463761354004504,
          "baseline_error_pct": 33.54914655679812
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2024-01-01",
          "target_date": "2024-03-31",
          "training_rows": 3260,
          "actual_price": 0.6292,
          "model_price": 0.6668572411529495,
          "baseline_price": 0.6298,
          "model_error_pct": 5.984939789089248,
          "baseline_error_pct": 0.09535918626828432
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2025-01-01",
          "target_date": "2025-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3626,
          "actual_price": 2.139,
          "model_price": 0.7642889355772384,
          "baseline_price": 2.328,
          "model_error_pct": 64.26886696693602,
          "baseline_error_pct": 8.835904628330999
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2026-01-01",
          "target_date": "2026-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3991,
          "actual_price": 1.348,
          "model_price": 1.073573339679969,
          "baseline_price": 1.877,
          "model_error_pct": 20.358060854601717,
          "baseline_error_pct": 39.24332344213649
        }
      ],
      "summary": {
        "count": 8,
        "first_origin": "2019-01-01",
        "last_origin": "2026-01-01",
        "median_model_error_pct": 42.304761543344355,
        "median_baseline_error_pct": 14.72593912271438,
        "model_wins": 3
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "dogecoin",
      "name": "Dogecoin",
      "data_through": "2026-10-20",
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "origin_date": "2018-01-01",
          "target_date": "2018-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1431,
          "actual_price": 0.002785,
          "model_price": 0.00036454188921879665,
          "baseline_price": 0.008691,
          "model_error_pct": 86.91052462410066,
          "baseline_error_pct": 212.06463195691202
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2019-01-01",
          "target_date": "2019-04-01",
          "training_rows": 1796,
          "actual_price": 0.002449,
          "model_price": 0.0009514852934678547,
          "baseline_price": 0.002394,
          "model_error_pct": 61.14800761666579,
          "baseline_error_pct": 2.245814618211512
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2020-01-01",
          "target_date": "2020-03-31",
          "training_rows": 2161,
          "actual_price": 0.001838,
          "model_price": 0.0014332061510354032,
          "baseline_price": 0.002124,
          "model_error_pct": 22.023604405037915,
          "baseline_error_pct": 15.56039173014146
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2021-01-01",
          "target_date": "2021-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2527,
          "actual_price": 0.06221,
          "model_price": 0.001890272061189422,
          "baseline_price": 0.005699,
          "model_error_pct": 96.96146590389098,
          "baseline_error_pct": 90.83909339334511
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2022-01-01",
          "target_date": "2022-04-01",
          "training_rows": 2892,
          "actual_price": 0.1413,
          "model_price": 0.00615288109246109,
          "baseline_price": 0.1731,
          "model_error_pct": 95.64551939670129,
          "baseline_error_pct": 22.50530785562632
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2023-01-01",
          "target_date": "2023-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3257,
          "actual_price": 0.08186,
          "model_price": 0.012861283520799254,
          "baseline_price": 0.0702,
          "model_error_pct": 84.28868370290832,
          "baseline_error_pct": 14.243830930857564
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2024-01-01",
          "target_date": "2024-03-31",
          "training_rows": 3622,
          "actual_price": 0.22,
          "model_price": 0.02128215480680108,
          "baseline_price": 0.092,
          "model_error_pct": 90.32629326963588,
          "baseline_error_pct": 58.18181818181818
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2025-01-01",
          "target_date": "2025-04-01",
          "training_rows": 3988,
          "actual_price": 0.174,
          "model_price": 0.03523001286587761,
          "baseline_price": 0.3244,
          "model_error_pct": 79.75286616903585,
          "baseline_error_pct": 86.43678160919542
        },
        {
          "origin_date": "2026-01-01",
          "target_date": "2026-04-01",
          "training_rows": 4353,
          "actual_price": 0.09218,
          "model_price": 0.05503379449922962,
          "baseline_price": 0.1267,
          "model_error_pct": 40.297467455815124,
          "baseline_error_pct": 37.44847038403125
        }
      ],
      "summary": {
        "count": 9,
        "first_origin": "2018-01-01",
        "last_origin": "2026-01-01",
        "median_model_error_pct": 84.28868370290832,
        "median_baseline_error_pct": 37.44847038403125,
        "model_wins": 2
      }
    }
  ]
}
